Principles: Life and Work

Principles: Life and Work。この本は、世界トップレベルのヘッジファンドBridgewaterのファンダーであるRay Dalioが、彼の人生における重要なPrinciplesを纏めたものだ。

米国の去年のベストセラーであり、中国でもかなり売れている。個人的には昨年読んだ本の中で、最も役に立っている本。なぜ未だに和訳版が出ていないのか不思議でならない。
本は長すぎて読めないという方に幾つかのリソースをシェアしたい
まずは30分でPrinciplesをざっくり習得できるYoutube動画。Ray本人が監修している
Principles For Success by Ray Dalio (In 30 Minutes)
次はHBSのBridgewaterのケース。会社をPrinciplesで以下に運営するかに視点が置かれているが、動画もあるので、かなりわかりやすい
https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=44831
最後に僕がKindleで本を読んだ時にメモしたハイライト。これは参考になると思った方は、ぜひ本をご購入ください。
To be a successful entrepreneur, the same is true: One also has to be an independent thinker who correctly bets against the consensus, which means being painfully wrong a fair amount.
1. Put our honest thoughts out on the table, 2. Have thoughtful disagreements in which people are willing to shift their opinions as they learn, and 3. Have agreed-upon ways of deciding (e.g., voting, having clear authorities) if disagreements remain so that we can move beyond them without resentments. I believe that for any organization or for any relationship to be great, these things are required. I also believe that for a group decision-making system to be effective, the people using it have to believe that it’s fair.
Over time I learned that getting more out of life wasn’t just a matter of working harder at it. It was much more a matter of working effectively, because working effectively could increase my capacity by hundreds of times.
(p. 135)
Pain + Reflection = Progress. There is no avoiding pain, especially if you’re going after ambitious goals. Believe it or not, you are lucky to feel that kind of pain if you approach it correctly, because it is a signal that you need to find solutions so you can progress. If you can develop a reflexive reaction to psychic pain that causes you to reflect on it rather than avoid it, it will lead to your rapid learning/evolving.
(p. 152)
1. Don’t confuse what you wish were true with what is really true. 2. Don’t worry about looking good—worry instead about achieving your goals. 3. Don’t overweight first-order consequences relative to second- and third-order ones. 4. Don’t let pain stand in the way of progress. 5. Don’t blame bad outcomes on anyone but yourself.
(p. 162)
Proximate causes are typically the actions (or lack of actions) that lead to problems, so they are described with verbs (I missed the train because I didn’t check the train schedule). Root causes run much deeper and they are typically described with adjectives (I didn’t check the train schedule because I am forgetful). You can only truly solve your problems by removing their root causes, and to do that, you must distinguish the symptoms from the disease.
(p. 176)
you can’t make a great decision without swimming for a while in a state of “not knowing.”
(p. 188)
Recognize that decision making is a two-step process: First take in all the relevant information, then decide. Most people are reluctant to take in information that is inconsistent with what they have already concluded. When I ask why, a common answer is: “I want to make up my own mind.” These people seem to think that considering opposing views will somehow threaten their ability to decide what they want to do. Nothing could be further from the truth. Taking in others’ perspectives in order to consider them in no way reduces your freedom to think independently and make your own decisions. It will just broaden your perspective as you make them.
(p. 188)
Everything looks bigger up close . In all aspects of life , what’s happening today seems like a much bigger deal than it will appear in retrospect . That’s why it helps to step back to gain perspective and sometimes defer a decision until some time passes .
(p. 238)
Create a Culture in Which It Is Okay to Make Mistakes and Unacceptable Not to Learn from Them
(p. 281)
Don’t pay as much attention to people’s conclusions as to the reasoning that led them to their conclusions
(p. 283)
Beware of paying too much attention to what is coming at you and not enough attention to your machine. e. Don’t get distracted by shiny objects. 10.2 Remember that for every case you deal with, your approach should have two purposes: 1) to move you closer to your goal, and 2) to train and test your machine (i.e., your people and your design).
(p. 289)
Design and oversee a machine to perceive whether things are good enough or not good enough, or do it yourself. a. Assign people the job of perceiving problems, give them time to investigate, and make sure they have independent reporting lines so that they can convey problems without any fear of recrimination.
(p. 291)
To distinguish between a capacity issue and a capability issue, imagine how the person would perform at that particular function if they had ample capacity.
(p. 292)
Make departments as self-sufficient as possible so that they have control over the resources they need to achieve their goals.
(p. 293)
Remember that almost everything will take more time and cost more money than you expect.
(p. 294)
1 ) having clear goals , 2 ) identifying the problems preventing the goals from being achieved , 3 ) diagnosing what parts of the machine ( i.e . , which people or which designs ) are not working well , 4 ) designing changes , and 5 ) doing what is needed . This is the fastest and most efficient way that an organization improves .
(p. 302)
Start by writing down your mistakes and connecting the dots between them . Then write down your “ one big challenge , ” the weakness that stands the most in the way of your getting what you want .
(pp. 352-353)
Remember this : The pain is all in your head . If you want to evolve , you need to go where the problems and the pain are . By confronting the pain , you will see more clearly the paradoxes and problems you face . Reflecting on them and resolving them will give you wisdom . The harder the pain and the challenge , the better .
(p. 353)
If either party to a disagreement is too emotional to be logical , the conversation should be deferred . Pausing a few hours or even a few days in cases where decisions do not have to be made immediately is sometimes the best approach .
(p. 364)
understand that to be truly successful I need to be like a conductor of people , many of whom ( if not all ) can play their instruments better than I can — and that if I was a really great conductor , I would also be able to find a better conductor than me and hire him or her . My ultimate goal is to create a machine that works so well that I can just sit back and watch beauty happen .
(p. 400)
When putting someone in a position of responsibility , make sure their incentives are aligned with their responsibilities and they experience the consequences of the outcomes they produce . As an example , structure their deals so that they do well or badly based on how well or badly you do in the areas they are responsible for . This is fundamental for good management .
(p. 402)
a . Think through which values , abilities , and skills you are looking for ( in that order ) . Values are the deep – seated beliefs that motivate behaviors and determine people’s compatibilities with each other .
(p. 407)
d . For performance reviews , start from specific cases , look for patterns , and get in sync with the person being reviewed by looking at the evidence together . While feedback should be constant , reviews are typically periodic ; their purpose is to bring together the accumulated evidence of what a person is like as it pertains to their job performance .
(p. 432)
In constructing your metrics , imagine the most important questions you need answered in order to know how things are going and imagine what numbers will give you the answers to them . Don’t look at the numbers that you have and try to adapt them to your purposes , because you won’t get what you need . Instead start with the most important questions and imagine the metrics that will answer them . Remember that any single metric can mislead ; you need enough evidence to establish patterns . And of course the information that goes into the metrics must be assessed for accuracy . A reluctance to be critical can be detected by looking at the average grade each grader gives ; those giving higher average grades might be easy graders and vice versa . Similarly helpful are “ forced rankings , ” in which people must rank co – worker performance from best to worst . Forced rankings are essentially the same thing as “ grading on a curve . ” Metrics that allow for independent grading across departments and groups are especially valuable . d .
(p. 452)
a . Remember who has what responsibilities . While that might sound obvious , people often fail to stick to their own responsibilities . Even senior people in organizations sometimes act like young kids just learning to play soccer , running after the ball in an effort to help but forgetting what position they are supposed to play . This can undermine rather than improve performance . So make sure that people remember how the team is supposed to work and play their positions well .
(pp. 457-458)
It’s a basic reality that if you don’t experience the consequences of your actions , you’ll take less ownership of them .
(p. 462)
Every key person should have at least one person who can replace him or her . It’s best to have those people designated as likely successors and to have them apprentice and help in doing those jobs .
(p. 463)
There is no greater failure than to fail to escalate a responsibility you cannot handle .
(p. 471)
To diagnose well , ask the following questions : 1 . Is the outcome good or bad ? 2 . Who is responsible for the outcome ? 3 . If the outcome is bad , is the Responsible Party incapable and / or is the design bad ?
(p. 485)
Importantly , ask yourself this question : If X attribute is done well next time , will the bad outcome still occur ? This is a good way of making sure you are logically connecting the outcome back to the case . Think of it this way : If your mechanic replaced that part in your car , would that fix it ?
(p. 487)
Virtually nothing goes according to plan because one doesn’t plan for the things that go wrong .
(p. 516)
Good metrics come about by first thinking of what information you need to answer your pressing questions and then figuring out how to get it . They do not come about by gathering information and putting it together to see what it tells you . At Bridgewater , we talk about four helpful steps to creating good metrics : 1 ) know what goal your business is achieving , 2 ) understand the process for getting to the goal ( your “ machine ” with its people and design ) , 3 ) identify the key parts in the process that are the best places to measure , so you know how your machine is working to achieve that goal , and 4 ) explore how to create levers , tied to those key metrics , that allow you to adjust your process and change your outcomes . To that end , we encourage employees to construct our metrics in conjunction with process flow diagrams and procedures manuals .
(p. 543)
1. Have clear goals. 2. Identify and don’t tolerate the problems that stand in the way of your achieving those goals. 3. Accurately diagnose the problems to get at their root causes. 4. Design plans that will get you around them. 5. Do what’s necessary to push these designs through to results.
(pp. 169-170)

People is everything. Recruiting at start-ups.

お金のトピックの後は、採用の話に関して。Founder/CEOはキャッシュを切らせずに、いいチームを作り、大きなビジョンをしっかり示すことが仕事だと誰かから聞いた。資金調達と採用がうまく行けばとりあえずは合格点ということだ。
採用・人事の原則として、”Hire slow, Fire fast”というものがある。これは有名なフレーズなので、だいぶ前から知っていたが、多大な学費を払ってやっと実感が伴ってきた。
いまチームが50人を超えてきており、解雇も累計10人以上はしたと思う。周りの経営メンバーに聞いても、解雇が早すぎたということを後悔する人は聞いたことがない。大体解雇する前にあれこれ悩むのだが、解雇した直後から圧倒的な爽快感に包まれるのだ。悩む理由は大体一緒で、解雇したら代わりの人が見つかりにくいから生産性が落ちるんじゃないか、解雇する・引き継ぐ手続きが面倒くさいんじゃないか、解雇する際に感傷的になってしまうんじゃないか、などなど。
今まで人を解雇したことがないというマネージャーも多く、”Hire slow, Fire fast”を唱えるだけではなく、実際に解雇を容易にする環境整備が重要である。まずはデキる人事を社内に抱え、感覚的にはボタン一つかつリーガルリスクゼロで、成果の出ない従業員を解雇する体制を整えることが必要だ。プロセスが簡素化されると、マネージャーの意思決定は、より客観的な事実(従業員のパフォーマンス)に基いて行える。それと同時にパワフルな採用マシーンを用意し、解雇して後にすぐに補充できる体制を用意してあげることも必要である。有名な話では、Netflixやザッポスが入社後の初期に、パフォームしない従業員に対して、手厚い退職金を積んで送り出すのも、似たような目的なのだろう。入社して3ヶ月でパフォームしない従業員が、その後パフォームすることは滅多にない。マネージャーは大抵フィードバックを与えて、パフォーマンスレビューのプランに入れて様子を見ると主張するが、少なくとも我々の会社ではそれがうまく行った試しがない。ハードスキルはともかく、大人の人間はなかなかそう簡単には良くも悪くも変わらないのだ。
パフォームしない従業員を放置しておくと、チーム全体の生産性が最終的にはその従業員と同様のレベルまで悪化する。マネージャーが明言しなくても、大体チームメンバーはお互いのパフォーマンスをよく把握しており、適切なアクションが取られないとすぐチーム全体のモチベーションの低下につながってしまう。もしパフォーマンスのみならず、カルチャー的にもミスマッチがあった場合、ダメージは更に致命的となり、一定程度進行すると外科手術を行わないと回復不能に陥る。
解雇と同時に進めなければならないのは、採用である。経営幹部の話はまた少し異なってくるので、ここではVP/Directorレベルまでの採用にフォーカスする。殆どのスタートアップは圧倒的に無名なので、採用は単なる面接ではなく、アトラクトの要素も多々兼ねている。ここの認識がズレていると、ワンランク低い人材しか取れなくなるので、営業の意識を持って取り組まないといけない。一番良いソーシングは、まだ転職活動を始めていない、パッシブな人材に一番最初にリーチ・アウトすることだ。このアプローチをうまく進めると、グーグルやフェースブック等の大企業とのオファー競争に巻き込まれなくて済むので、クロージングのコンバージョンは上がる。しかし、このアプローチをすすめるには多大な時間と労力がかかる上に、募集しているそれぞれの役職に対して深い理解がなければ行けない。一人のリクルーターではカバー仕切れない場合が殆どだと思うので、外部のリクルーターも併用するしかない。
採用ではどういうポイントに注目するのか。役職によって勿論異なるし、採用面接のベスト・プラクティス的なものはフル活用したほうがいいが、僕の経験からすると、我々のプロダクト・ビジョンへの共感度及びカルチャーフィトが最も重要であり、役職によっては地頭の良さ(学習能力)も極めて重要だ。少なくとも我々の業界においては、業界経験は殆ど必要ない。勿論社内に数名業界のエキスパートは必要だが、他はすべて他業界かの採用で全く問題ない。事実昨年の人事評価でA評価だった従業員のバックグラウンドを調べてみたところ、誰一人テレビ・メディア業界の出身者はいなかった。パッションやカルチャーフィットは、入社後の改善がほぼ見込めないので、面接中に見極める必要がある。
候補者を絞った段階で、クロージングに入っていくわけだが、オファーを出す前に必ずバックグラウンドチェックとレファレンスチェックを行うべき。我々はこれで過去痛い思いをしており(詳細は割愛するが)、いま全部の最終段階の候補者に対して行っている。またよくある議論で、この候補者はちょっとまだ我々の要求レベルに達していないけど、業務が山積みで猫の手も借りたいので、とりあえず採用したほうがいいんじゃないかというものがあるが、採用を焦ると確実に失敗する。失敗したと認めるまでに2-3ヶ月はかかり、その後再度採用を開始し、引き継ぎが完了するまでにまた2-3ヶ月はかかるので、半年はロスしてしまう。まさに急げば回れだ。
最終的にオファーを出して、候補者に受諾してもらうわけだが、ここで最も有効な手段はいろんな人(社内、社外)含めて口説いてもらうことだ。オファーを出した瞬間に、今まであったことのある人全員からお祝いのメールを送り、可能であれば電話でもフォローアップする。また候補者が信頼しているメンター等からアプローチしてもらうと更に効果が上がる。報酬の交渉に入れば、かなり脈ありと判断してもいいだろう。報酬をどう決めるべきかは、またいつか別のタイミングで書いてみたいと思う。